What the future will bring?

vbimport

#1

Imagine you live in year 2050. You are digging deep into shelves and find old jewelcases with DVDs stored in them. There are dates written on the cases, going back to '10s. Assuming the discs are still readable you throw one of them into computer drive to find a bunch of *.m2ts AVCHD (H.264) video files you shot back in these years with your 1080 res camcorder. Well, my 36 year old son would be impressed because he is watching himself making his first steps when he was only 9 months old in 2015.
Did you got it what I mean? Let’s discuss:)


#2

My first thought would be - what the hell were they wearing back then?! :bigsmile:


#3

[QUOTE=Arachne;2753947]My first thought would be - what the hell were they wearing back then?! :bigsmile:[/QUOTE]

So what are you wearing then?! :p:bigsmile:

[B]Wombler[/B]


#4

They all will be coasters by then.Maybe under table legs to balance the table.They may be recycled to make space ships,let me know what happens.


#5

Most people don’t care and will have just a few moments of nostalgia. How many times do you see people browsing through their baby pictures?

I can make hunderes of pictures or movies each and every day of my children. I chose not to do so much, because it would deprive me of time to actually enjoy spending time with them.


#6

It’s a matter of personal choice. My father has tens of boxes full of diapositives from '80s and '90s. And I watch these pictures gladly every now and then. Memories captured today are not worthless until my children will want to watch or playback these even once. Question is, will the media holding these memories still be playable then? I guess some MCC 004 burned today maybe will be. M-disc (definitely?) will be. There is no problem to make copies after every 10 years but what about media codecs? I hope that after 30-40 years something can still play H.264 encoded video.


#7

I’m sure transport will be completely transformed.

There will no more postmen - Letters and small packets will be delivered by drone. Robot delivery vehicles will deliver larger parcels.

Few people will own cars - Bring up the ‘Drive’ app, pick a destination and request pick-up. Within a minute, a car will pull up to collect you.

Buses will be driverless, but most will have an assistant to help with elderly, disabled, baggage, etc.

Garbage collection will be robotic with bin collection overnight.

Nobody talks about cloud storage - It’ll be “The storeroom” for all your physical items due to cheaper robotic transport. For example, rather than leave the gas barbecue outside all winter, just bring up the storeroom app and request collection. A robotic van will arrive, you wheel in that barbecue and it’ll keep it safe over winter. When the summer returns, just bring up the app, look for the barbecue and retrieve. Within an hour, a van will arrive with your barbecue. Maybe at the same time, you could put in your box of winter clothes to save a bit on the cheaper “Drop off & collect” option. :wink:

Plus - there will be all the talk. Like how the older folks today would say “I remember chatting with the telephone operator …”, replace “telephone operator” with services like “postman”, “taxi driver”, etc.


#8

[QUOTE=Hannez;2754010]I hope that after 30-40 years something can still play H.264 encoded video.[/QUOTE]
Sure it can. It will either be emulated or just embedded on most common chips. Though the carrier of the content may cause for some troubles. Just like today we don’t see much floppy disks and stuff like that.

Today we can make $9 computers that have way more computational power than the Voyager we launched into space in the 70’s. And that thing is beyond Pluto right now! We have over 100GB of storage on a device that’s smaller than most of your nails.

It took us about 40 years to come to this, so the next 40 years will be mind boggling amazing even if we have the same steady pace of technological development.


#9

[QUOTE=Wombler;2753958]So what are you wearing then?! :p:bigsmile:

[B]Wombler[/B][/QUOTE]

Clothes :stuck_out_tongue: :bigsmile:

I can’t imagine today’s CD-Rs/DVD Rs being readable by that time either. Even if the formats are still supported, the discs themselves may have gone South, especially if they’re Princo’s :bigsmile:

Completely agree with Seán’s post, most of that is underway even now :slight_smile:


#10

Originally Posted by [B]Wombler[/B]
[I]So what are you wearing then?[/I]

[QUOTE=Arachne;2754055]Clothes :stuck_out_tongue: :bigsmile:

[/QUOTE]

Darn? :stuck_out_tongue:

Hmm, lets see, in 35 years I’m not going to have to worry about anything. I’ll be gone or senile, (no comments on present condition!!). But I think physical media like discs, tapes and such will be regarded as quaint and virtually forgotten. Much the way we look at wax cylinders and 78rpm LP’s.

You’ll be lucky to have the hardware to play such antiques.

Regarding other changes, I think the internet will be vastly different from what we have today. Speeds will be up, caps will have to be removed or greatly increased since virtually everything will be done online. Entertainment, data storage, business transactions, high speed communications around the world…all of this will be so commonplace that no one will really take notice of it. But I also think those who control the net will have taken over the content…what can be seen, what cannot. This shift from the wild and wooly internet of our time to one that is managed and controlled will be gradual, and those who never saw the internet with fewer controls will never know the difference.


#11

My assessment of the future is much darker.
If mankind manages to survive to 2050 maybe there will be special hardware that can read even very degraded discs.
I suspect the Earth population to be 10 billion by then.
Maybe we can still support that or maybe a plague will come & it will be a lot less.
Sooner or later over population will use up all the Earths resources.
Also pollution will get so bad most won’t survive.

Then again if Iran is allowed further nuclear development & is able to build it’s own nuclear bombs. Then follows through on using them on Israel. The nuclear war that results may eliminate mankind quicker.

Unless Devine intervention comes before the above happens.
That is my hope .

BTW I would be 97 in 2050 so I doubt it will be my concern as I don’t expect to live that long.


#12

And what about 12 cm disc? Is the blu-ray last one or it can develop further? 500 GB disc using 200 nm UV laser for example? Here in Estonia it looks like blu-ray isn’t becoming very popular, compared to DVD. In 2006 laptops were sold with DVDRW drives and local stores offered various brands of DVD blank media. Now the blu-ray is hanging around in the world for a while but most new computers still have DVD burner and stores are full of Verbatim DVD-s while BD burners and blank media are still pretty hard to find here.


#13

Blu-ray’s popularity will peak sometime in the next couple of years. As streaming really starts to take hold, the average consumer will move away from physical media. There will still be exceptions to this, as some people prefer to have a hard copy of movies that they have purchased, and many others will be in markets where high speed internet simply isn’t available or is too expensive.

So Blu-ray will hang on for another ten years or so, but become ever more marginal as a delivery system.

The new Ultra HD Blu-ray will be even less popular than the regular Blu-ray has been. It will be a niche product with limited penetration in the market. The cost of 4k tv’s, players and the movies will combine to hold this venture down. Plus most consumers are content with DVD-video quality, much less Blu-ray or its 4k successor.


#14

For important files (pictures, video clips etc) I prefer optical media. External HDD is a mechanical device and you will never know if something decides to break in this. Flash memory is also an electronic device and can fail. Cloud storage… umm…
I still trust in properly stored DVD or BD. I’m sure that if using good quality media I can take this disc from the shelf after ten years and it’s still readable. My MCC Verbatims burned in 2006 are readable and even give me very good quality test results. Yes, these will not remain such forever but i can be sure these will not degrade drastically in next ten years so I can make new copies.


#15

I get the feeling that reviewing archived material will make me hugely nostalgic, so much so that it’ll make me take a trip or two to visit family and friends everywhere I can possibly go. Of course, I’ll bring a sampling of the recorded memories with me, and I’ll have plenty of stories on standby.

Of course I’ll be the only one retrieving these memories off of what we today consider to be cheap media, because only I have luck with inexpensive stuff (with comparably rotten luck with things designed to withstand the test of time).

…Maybe I’ll just convert my favorite videos to flipbooks, and record the audio to film or a record (surely it won’t be hard to make a mold/stamper for the record, right?).