I don’t think I said people would be motivated to trash their DVD players, did I?
What I said was the technology will be obsolete, and we’ll move our collections into new formats, which is what has happening to VHS tape (and what we’ve done moving into DVD). They still produce them, but the volume is way down and falling. The same thing happened to vynil LP discs, remember? There were millions of turntables at the time; they’re all but relics now. For that matter, the cassette tape still has some presence, but in the day of $30 CD cutters, why bother? I think you can still purchase cassette players for cars, but the volume is extremely low. At one time there were millions of those, but the last time I saw a cassette player in a new car was 1999.
Even now, a new DVD format is being prepared for introduction (with a handful of gotcha’s I think the public will complain about loudly). We’ll already be in the transfer mode to a new format by 2006, choosing to either remain with the (then) old DVD standard, or trashing our DVD players for new ones that can play the new formats, though it will be a DVD for that incremental step. VHS will probably still be available, but to what utility? The quality is inferior and a large minority recognize it, which is why they adopted the DVD format when players became so cheap.
The public has become familiar with the notion of new delivery media, be it satellite, digital cable, CD’s, DVD’s, HD television - though they’ve become familiar with confusion in the process. For a while I worked contracts for TV production facilities, and many of those folks swore it would be at least 20 years before HD television would be adopted for ANY broadcast products. They’re reason was the same; too much already invested in the older technology.
This has happened before, though. The story of AM and FM radio was among the first. One might even go as far back as Edison and his DC power station proposal vs. alternating current.
Unless, for some reason, history stops being an outline of the way things continue to happen, how would this media survive for long? What property does it have that gives it staying power over, say, the laser disc?
I realize it may be sacrilege to suggest the demise of a medium this forum is dedicated to. I don’t suggest this is going to happen in 2 or 3 years, but at some point, either by a series of incremental changes, or by the introduction of radical new methods, it must happen.
Don’t think, either, that I’m not an enthusiast of the format. I just purchased my first DVD burner last month, and so far it’s been a dream peripheral. My interest is the reason I signed on to this board in the first place.
BTW, I’m going on vacation for a few days. If I drop off of this thread, it’s not quite because it’s lost appeal - don’t count me out until Friday.