Should replicators invest in Blu-ray?

I just posted the article Should replicators invest in Blu-ray?.

Many small and midsized disc replicators invested their time in HD DVD for all the obvious reasons. To make HD DVDs replicators only had to make a few adjustments to their existing DVD…

Read the full article here:  [](

Feel free to add your comments below. 

Please note that the reactions from the complete site will be synched below.

Chicken & egg scenario lol

Sony promised that Blu-ray will be the same successful cross platform media as DVD. This is how they got major studio support. Now Sony must face and convince the entire optical disc industry and try force them to BD. Sony made a very dangerous move to build this strategy without any existing manufacturer support. It’s very easy to get shiny board members and brands to support BD on the surface, but very difficult to convince the whole industry (companies and investors who are unknown to the public, but they are the very backround of the optical data storage industry around the globe) to invest in BD manufacturing lines.
This message was edited at: 28-03-2008 21:46

PPeter, I agree. This article is the reason I wanted to see HD-DVD as a winner. Cheaper media faster, minor changes to production lines. Proven media more or less. And HD-DVD was compatible with DVD so it would probably have been a lot easier to move excisting dvd-movies onto HD-DVD discs. I don’t think blu-ray has any advantages, the “BS” talk about larger storage space don’t matter. 25Gb or 50Gb is still to small now that harddrives are reaching 1Tb. Anyway, now that we only have one format, it remains to be seen what all other in the BD race will do. The loosers are the consumers. Clearly it’s the industry, mainly the movie industry that has choose this format. Let’s all hope that this turns out “OK” in the end anyway.

I knew this was going to happen… I posted about this before, that BD is an expensive media to produce and will cost more because of that… BD is not ready for prime time… In the race to buy support from the major studios, Sony failed to factor in the replicators… They may need to give them some funding to help them switch to BD…

“… In the race to buy support from the major studios, Sony failed to factor in the replicators… They may need to give them some funding to help them switch to BD…” Actually, they gave it a great deal of consideration. The process is licensed, The BD cartel owns and sells the production equipment and materials and controls who will be allowed to make the discs. In short, they create a shortage and/or price controls in order to keep the prices high. The same is true for players. This was all carefully planned. The promise of higher profit margins is what brought the studios on board.

As much as I am not a huge blu ray fan, I must say that I doubt the cost factor is much different then when DVD came into the market. Could VHS replicators make DVDs ? Of course not so manufacturers had to move on and invest in new expensive DVD replicators which eventually became more “affordable” over time. Yes there are other factors but I think the supply & demand factor will influence the situation if demand for BD movies increases significantly.

Nobody can make BD discs unless they get a license from the BD cartel, and pay a hefty fee. The cost is enough to make small runs impossible. So unless someone has a market for millions of discs, they won’t want to make BD at all. Add the millions needed to build a completely new production line, and you begin to see the issues. You have to build enough production capacity to be able to make enough discs to pay for all this. It could take a couple years at full production to clear a profit. Catch 22. Who wants to gamble many millions on a format that’s not certain? PLUS, most disc makers will need to tear down DVD production lines to make room for a BD line, thus eliminating existing income streams.

I think everybody here is on point when they say BluRay is expensive to produce. Personally, I could produce a BluRay for pennies on the dollar compared to most but then again I didn’t have to pay $60,000+ for a license to the authoring software + $75,000 for an AVC encoder. And now with BD-50 movie/video game bottlenecks you’re gonna have a bunch of stripped down BluRay movies over the next year with BD-Live and crap like that it will interesting to see what they skimp on. :S

Why invest in new product lines that ultimately will not see an ROI past the experation date of new media formats. {which we’re pretty sure is just around the corner} The point being according to the research production levels will not be able to meet demand. I don’t think demand has even come close to preceived guesses by marketing people. Though a “spike” in sales, the overall total market has not met any goals. On the other hand, it should force a rise in price for production. Which can only help this market that has been dragged through the mud of a format war. It would be a welcome change to falling margins.