[QUOTE=Kenshin;2702255]There’s no HDD that is similar to SSD. Even 50 15,000-RPM SCSI/SAS drives working at once cannot ever be made as fast as a consumer SSD. Those who need speeds most try harder to compare the most expensive HDD with the most advanced SSD: http://www.webhostingtalk.com/showthread.php?t=1232604
NAND and SSD prices did not go up. HDD industry was affected. Consumers were affected. But the overall HDD industry was little affected. For those who wanted to buy at least one unit of 3TB HDD every month, that must have been a tragedy. For most consumers, there was simply no problem, no price increase. Most consumers do not go to newegg.com and choose the most cost-effective HDDs. The average PC users simply order pre-configured PC. A small percentage of PC users order HDDs from Bestbuy, Amazon, small shops, etc. Most of those “home builders” or “DIY-ers” choose US$50 HDD. They don’t need 2TB or 3TB HDD if they can buy a 500GB HDD for US$50.
It’s true Seagate and Western Digital earned more thanks to the disaster in Thailand, but the widespread perception HDD prices were raised was largely based on nothing. The overall impact was far smaller than perceived. Just like bank runs of Hong Kong decades ago, and the ongoing DRAM prices.
There must have been some retail stores trying at some moments to raise their SSD prices, but nobody really needed to buy from them. What happened to the unlucky Western Digital HDD factories in Thailand were not serious enough to affect SSD prices. Contract prices and retail prices did not go up. I usually check prices on both retail and OEM sides of markets in the US, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and several Western European countries.
SSD prices were already low enough compared to SSD before the flood. It was just that some people realized the potential of SSD too late. Looking back, I wrote SSD was going to replace and how it would restructure the world’s storage industry around 2005. Replacing HDD with SSD made sense even before 2005. Most of it was experimental for some years between around 2000 and 2005 because making SSD inside every computing device would require tens of billions of dollars to invest and shareholders and executives needed years of concentrated efforts for such experiments before making group-wide decisions.
To make 1TB at US$125 will not require 25 years, but 25 months.[/QUOTE]
There was evidence that wholesalers were gouging resellers due to the Thailand shortage. What was predicted to be a 5-10% price spike turned out to be a 30 - 75% price spike spread out over 14+ months.
It remains to be seen whether SSD makers ever plan to make their products main stream or not. Their track record on this is not good. The boost in flash capacity is giving tablets a chance to steal PC market share.
I compare the stumbling block a commercial marketplace failure similar to replacing CFL bulbs with LED bulbs… the technology is in place and the prices to manufacture have come down, but the price thresholds do not yield a mainstream crossover just yet when a CFL can be bought for $1 a bulb and LED bulbs of comparable capacity are $10, $15, $20 (or more). Quite a challenge for the consumer to be thrilled about.
Compared with the 80s, 90s and for a few years after technology was advancing with products circulating into the mainstream which were unaffordable before. This is not so much the case these days due in part to the domestic and international economies.
