Poll of the day: Ultra HD Blu-ray will be a fail

vbimport

#1

We’ve just posted the following news: Poll of the day: Ultra HD Blu-ray will be a fail[newsimage]http://www.myce.com/wp-content/images_posts/2016/02/UltraHD-Bluray-95x75.jpg[/newsimage]

Ultra HD Blu-ray is the successor to Blu-ray and promises improved picture quality but will it become a success?

            Read the full article here: [http://www.myce.com/news/poll-day-ultra-hd-blu-ray-will-fail-79188/](http://www.myce.com/news/poll-day-ultra-hd-blu-ray-will-fail-79188/)

            Please note that the reactions from the complete site will be synched below.

#2

More than a little sidetracked, but I am like the five year old here, proposing the next generation: Why not infinite resolution Sound and Picture/Motion. Still not solved and for the most not targeted properly as everyone still seem to think it is impossible, but think about it seriously… Why not some advanced vector or other abstract solution to it (just a thought) :flower:


#3

Prices on 4K TVs have dropped significantly, so I don’t know why it would fail. I bought my 55" 4K TV on Black Friday for $400.00, and it’s amazing. I’d love to have a 4K Blu-ray player to go with it, and am thinking of buying a unit they have at Costco for about $90.00.


#4

UHD discs will be a niche product for several reasons. First is the expense of the players, screens and the movies themselves. This alone pushes the format into a [B]luxury[/B] item for the time being, and for the next couple of years at the very least.

Secondly, the jump in visual quality is probably not enough in itself to excite the public into buying into yet another physical format. People seem to be satisfied with the “HD” they are getting now over cable, and it is nowhere near the visual quality of regular Blu-ray, much less UHD.

And third, the public wants convenience, and handling physical media, and waiting for the optical drive to spin up is becoming archaic. Not to mention the fact that you’ll have to wait for the disc to be verified the first time you play it. DRM placed on the UHD discs is going to be an annoyance, along with the unskippable ads and previews.

And finally, for the tiny minority of folks who like to rip and change formats and play movies from hard drives in their media streaming boxes, the UHD discs will probably be untouchable for some time to come…years perhaps, before anyone breaks the encryption sufficiently well to consider using them as source files.


#5

I think Ultra HD Blu-ray will be at least as successful as current Blu-ray. IMO, the only reason it won’t be a success is that streaming 4k content will be easy and cheap enough to supplant the discs.


#6

[QUOTE=UTR;2772949] IMO, the only reason it won’t be a success is that streaming 4k content will be easy and cheap enough to supplant the discs.[/QUOTE]

Depends on where you live…still plenty of people around who have capped data plans and limited transfer speed…


#7

It will fail to become more than a niche product, and then it will die with a whimper.

Not being copyable in any way nor playable on computers will limit its audience severely, and combined with the current slow death of physical media it doesn’t stand a chance.


#8

Wonder what would be considered a “minimal sustainable” market.

Could it be a market resembling laserdisc back in the 1980s and early-mid 1990s?


#9

[QUOTE=DrageMester;2772952]Not being copyable in any way nor playable on computers will limit its audience severely, and combined with the current slow death of physical media it doesn’t stand a chance.[/QUOTE]

With the advent of the HTPC they would be wise to allow it to be played by PCs. It is things like this that promote illegal downloading. I would love to be able to forgo a dedicated player and use an HTPC instead.


#10

It will be as popular as Laserdisk was. So decide if this was a success or failure.Â


#11

I was pretty stoked about HD and 1080p came out. I was an early adopter and I still think it was revolutionary.  I’ve built up a sizable bluray collection and they look fantastic on my 60" TV.

I’m not really feeling 4k.   Resolution wise I have minimal improvements because I sit about 12 to 13ft away from a 60" TV (and I don’t really want a bigger TV).   HDR would add some improvement.  There’s nothing that makes we want to buy a new TV and rebuy my movie collection.   I think Blu-Ray will probably be my last optical format.

I also feel like I care about this stuff more than my friends/family. Most of them don’t buy movies anymore, and dont’ give a crap between SD/HD.   Not the kind of people that will move to 4k.


#12

So we buy these. Then we have to buy the TV, then we have to buy the camera. So when does this Stupidity STOP!


#13

[QUOTE=MrScary;2773078]So we buy these. Then we have to buy the TV, then we have to buy the camera. So when does this Stupidity STOP![/QUOTE]

It never stops. Technology marches on. This is the way the human race has always been. Even the Amish can’t perpetually resist adopting new technology. :wink:


#14

[QUOTE=MrScary;2773078]So we buy these. Then we have to buy the TV, then we have to buy the camera. So when does this Stupidity STOP![/QUOTE]Whom said you had to buy it? If you believe all that hype then buy it otherwise pass on it.


#15

[QUOTE=coolcolors;2773083]Whom said you had to buy it? If you believe all that hype then buy it otherwise pass on it.[/QUOTE]

It won’t be long before 1080p TVs go the way of SD tube TVs. The displacement is happening fast. Then, anyone buying a new TV will be adopting 4k technology whether they want it or not. I don’t see anyone complaining about not being able to buy an SD TV and I expect the same will be true about 1080p when it goes away.


#16

As a commercial format it will certainly fail. If it doesn’t die a natural death then the film companies will kill it off themselves. :wink:

Nobody wants to sell material for a one-time payment any more. Instead they all want to switch to a subscription model and receive a continuous income without having to develop any new products or innovate.

It’s just money for old rope, but paid for again & again automatically every month/year forever.

But as a general purpose storage medium, Buy-ray must have a future. There is nothing out there to replace optical discs.


#17

It’ll last as long as any other HD format, TVs are getting affordable and technically the disks cost the same as Blu Ray disks. I think the other advances they’ve made with TV tech is making the higher resolution much nicer looking with better black levels coming from local dimming and oled sets and the HDR stuff.
The computer stuff is going to happen as there will be demand to be able play the disks, if they make a stand alone player more then likely the optical player inside is based on a PC drive. I don’t care about 3d, can’t see it anyways but I can see the improvement in a good uhd TV.


#18

[QUOTE=Xercus;2772943]More than a little sidetracked, but I am like the five year old here, proposing the next generation: Why not infinite resolution Sound and Picture/Motion. Still not solved and for the most not targeted properly as everyone still seem to think it is impossible, but think about it seriously… Why not some advanced vector or other abstract solution to it (just a thought) :flower:[/QUOTE]

Well it’s possible to use fractal techniques for image compression and resizing so that’s probably not too far fetched.

You don’t have to go as far as that though as the practical limit is determined by the ability of the human eye to perceive the difference.

We’ve had several significant improvements in quality so far VHS, DVD, Blu-ray, UHD, and the benefits of these have been clearly visible but I reckon with the latest UHD standard we’re increasingly nearing the point where the law of diminishing returns has a more significant effect.

When it gets to the stage that most people can’t tell the difference, that’s when the race to ever increasing resolutions will cease. As to how far away that is it’s hard to tell but we will eventually reach the limits of human ability and that will stagnate a whole range of technologies.

It’s an interesting subject though. :iagree:

[B]Wombler[/B]


#19

I have no doubt 4K TVs will do well, especially with how far prices have come down.

I’m sure if Ultra HD Blu-ray players approach the pricing of regular Blu-ray players, people will likely choose the Ultra HD player figuring they’re future proofing their kit. As for those who already have a Blu-ray player, I predict that most people are going to hang on to it until it eventually fails.

As for Ultra HD titles, unless they are priced the same or very close to HD titles, I doubt many are going to choose the Ultra HD version. If someone’s got the player, sure they’ll get one to try it out.

Of course there’s also the possibility the movie industry could try to reduce the quality of its Blu-ray titles so that its Ultra HD versions stand out. Satellite and cable providers have already done this by lowering the bitrates of its HD broadcasts to add more HD channels on its service. As a result, 4K broadcasts will no doubt look better due to the higher bitrates provided to those broadcasts even though 1080p broadcasts would look just as good to most people if their bitrates were increased. For example, when the first HD channels started broadcasting on satellite, they were encoded around 18Mbps. Now many HD channels are encoded as low as 6Mbps.


#20

[QUOTE=Ibex;2773089]As a commercial format it will certainly fail. If it doesn’t die a natural death then the film companies will kill it off themselves. :wink:

Nobody wants to sell material for a one-time payment any more. Instead they all want to switch to a subscription model and receive a continuous income without having to develop any new products or innovate.

It’s just money for old rope, but paid for again & again automatically every month/year forever.

But as a general purpose storage medium, Buy-ray must have a future. There is nothing out there to replace optical discs.[/QUOTE]

While it is a little sidetracked, this is exactly why the consumers should say no. The power really is with the consumers and personally, I have no subscriptions at all and warn people against programs and anything else you can subscribe to out here as it will kill your budget over time. I spend my money on software and other things I can buy and supporting freeware developers.

What will happen as far as I can see is that while this is a lucrative business for now, more and more companies joins in this race for a piece of the pie until Jane and John simply can’t afford it anymore.

One example is Netflix which is about $10 a month. Here I am about the worst example possible as I simply can not find movies enough in a year I want to see totaling $120. Then we got Spotify at the same price or whatever, but even though being a far better example here, I rather spend my money on physical media where I actually own something instead of forking out money for nothing.

Now the 4k-shit is absolutely out of the question from the start for requiring a internet-connection to fully enjoy the contents, heck I don’t even buy programs that require an internet connection to work unless they are internet-related applications (and even then I block them from phoning home). One German company switched to such a scheme and lost me as a customer. The last version I am entitled to is installed and properly cracked to not require the connection - it IS my bandwidth!
These days I contact support/sales prior to any purchase to avoid having to crack a legally purchased product. I accept a one-time server based validation of the license, but after that it is restricted to my LAN.