[QUOTE=Jesterrace;2554886]The additional big problem is that there are still a large number of people with old standard def TVs out there that see no reason to change. You can still see the benefits of DVD on a standard def TV, the same is not true with blu-ray and although the number of LCDs in households is steadily growing it’s still not to the point where there are enough of them for people to truly switch everything from DVD to Blu-Ray. The other problem to add to the mix is that most movie companies are not consistent with their picture quality. I would say that approximately 50-60% of the blu-ray titles offer precious little over a DVD played on a decent quality up-converting player. If all of them would use the maximum PQ, enhancement details, etc. then people might be more willing to pay the extra for Blu-Ray over DVD. As such only about 20-25% of Blu-Ray titles out there really blow away the DVD version with stunning picture quality. I know that is a little bit off in terms of recordable blu-ray but I think it all ties in since it involves people buying into the technology. That and Blu-Ray burners are more limited in applications, thus far I have only been able to come up with 3 things that you can do with a Blu-Ray burner:
Data back-ups (although the practicality of this really isn’t there as a flash drive is far more practical and versitle and they can be purchased in about the same capacity)
PS3 back-ups (for those in the modding world who use this feature)
The DVD Burner on the other hand is far more versatile (and significantly cheaper)
Data back-ups (although I agree the flash drive once again would be more practical in most cases these days)
XBOX/XBOX 360, PS2, Wii (and all of the old CD based systems as well) back-ups for those in the console modding world
Now I recognize that the Blu-Ray burner can handle everything a DVD Burner can, I’m just saying that most people find that a Blu-Ray burner doesn’t offer enough extra options to merit the extra cost. This is one of the reasons why I have never upgraded to one (that and with all of the deals I keep finding on originals, the expense of a blu-ray burner and blank blu-ray discs for the purpose of backups usually doesn’t save much money).[/QUOTE]
I basically agree most of your ideas, except flash is but ONE technology… blue ray is going to have to compete with hard drives, online storage and future mediums to be devleoped. Density of hard drives are far outpacing blue ray with about 60:1 capacity densities. The blue ray industry should be working on an extra density format as soon as possible which will be backwards compatible to what they have… or else other technologies and standards are all vying to overtake them- not just flash.
Another thing, once those old analog sets die off, you can not really find much of any new CRT tv/monitors being built anymore, 98-99% of the market is now lcd, plasma, led display technology. That’s what they will HAVE TO BUY in the future. Once these holdouts are in the brick and moratar stores… it’s most likely they will be upsold a tv with one of the following: built in (or stand-alone) disc player (blue ray), flash media inputs, and/or wired/wireless streaming technologies built into the set. Blue Ray will not be alone in that upsell they will have to compete on price & the convenience factor in the future.
IMO, the reasons for blue ray pricing drops are simple: DIRT CHEAP HARD DRIVES & streaming media-- sure, laugh and mock the reliability factor all you want, but at such a low price per density… redundant arrays will become the norm rather than the exception. Should we entrust valueable data to one technology/medium? perhaps not, but until the other technologies become cost effective.