the other deciding factors are going to be the price of the download, the speed of the download, the quality of the download and whether it is filled to the brim with DRM! it isn't a simple matter of just putting a movie on the Internet early 'as an experiment', it has to have the right criteria. also, if the movie that's put out is a load of crap, it wont be downloaded much anyway. i suppose then at least the studio can say 'well, we put this movie out and no one wanted it hardly, so we dont think it's worth doing again'! and that move wouldn't surprise me in the least! the various studios are well known for doing the most ridiculous and hopeless thing and because it then suits, use the results as 'the norm'!
there will be the risk of the movie then being released on 'pirate sites' but if they use their brains instead of their ass to think with, this could be the best move the studios have made in a longtime, a move that should have been made 20years ago but they are the ones that can make it or break it.
there will always be an audience for the theaters, just as there will always be the group that buys the disks. what the studios cant expect to happen is everyone to download the movies, go to the theater and buy the disk. add in their usual completely over-priced attitude and every time it's gonna fail! the biggest thing they have to weigh up which they know full well is the way they will HAVE to go, is 'shall we screw this up and try to hang on to the theater and the disk and see how much we lose because 'pirate sites' give stuff away anyway or DO WE START TO ACTUALLY AND REALLY COMPETE?
theaters are nowhere near as popular as they used to be and hurting customers in the vain attempt to keep them open is not a good strategy. not nice to hear, maybe, but the truth often isn't!