Has someone any statistical data on how likely a burned dvd will loose data over time?
I have heard and read several stories about dvds not being readable after a few months. But has any magazine made some statistical relevant test or something similar?
I know that this actually depends on the producer of the dvd, the quality of the specific batch of dvds, the burner, the burning speed, the weather conditions, probably even the moon phases.
And furthermore, dvd-rs are not around for that long, so long-time tests are rare.
I know that I cannot expect very reliable information. So I am looking for unreliable data
I just want to make a very rough cost/risk estimation. I want to archive certain data and evaluate how likely a loss of that data is. This is not irreplacable data, so the cost for archival is important too.
I also include par2 parity files to increase redundancy. Has anyone else any experience with this? or does it not matter since the whole dvd becomes unreadable at once?
As a concrete example, I am verifying all my DVDs just after burning on another pc, and i burn roughly 5-10% par2 parity data on each dvd. I use a nec2500a and burn at 4x or 2x. How sure can I be that in 2 years 95% of my data is still readable? (by that time I can easily burn all my current data on one of the new x-ray discs )