Q1 2012 will have 30% of the reduction absorbed by increased output by China… that doesn’t mean that the DIRT CHEAP production labor from the Thailand will return to pre-production levels by late April. Still, the street price for a 1tb drive remains locked between $85 - $100 street price. My prediction is we MAY get back to $65 sometime in late August, no way by late April… that must be some kool aid these analysis are drinking. Shaking out the speculative greed in the wholesale/retail chains will take a few quarters You also have to factor in rising retail prices due to higher domestic fuel prices increases overhead costs (eitehr real or imagined-- ie the price of gas goes up, so do your electronics prices along with the cost of everything else in the summer).
** You might even say that the highest prices you pay for products and service will now be in he summer months. Therefore companies can feel quite comfortable to start raising prices in the spring in a new round of speculation. This is not what I want to have happen, but it is a trend that is all too common since 2007 when oil pries saw their first flirtation with $100 oil and $3 gasoline. Now $4 gasoline is all too common.
BTW, with all this new cash these price gougers are raking in, where are the innovations like 4 TB hard drives?!? Still unheard of… these HD makers shouldn’t be rewarded for having 3tb drives as the lastest and greatest for 3 years in a row!!! Make something better goddamnit!!