With concluding statements like the following:
[i]“In summary, donâ€™t expect DL prices to reach regular DVD disc prices this year. The popularity of the DL standard will definitely rise in 2005, but not to specific strengths. On the other hand, regular DVD media should also drop in prices significantly this year. High-quality DL writers will soon enter the market in vast quantities and features, which should give you a good enough choice for your selection. Until then, all we can do is wait for Blu-Ray and HD DVD to better predict the future of portable storage market.”
[/i]I find it very hard not to take this with a little grain of salt, let alone a distinct lack of credibility wandering throughout these words. The statements peddling are ‘easy answers’ and simple conclusions that anyone who had read some market analysis for ten minutes could have concluded. Fail to really see any insight here. Having said that - insight was probably not its intention.
[i]“High-quality DL writers will soon enter the market in vast quantities and features”
[/i]Statements of such generality clearly denote either excessive summarisation or a lack of depth of knowledge in the field imho.
They have already fallen in price and fallen significantly.
The initial asking price downunder for Vebatim Data Life Plus dual layer recordables (still virtually the only available brand downunder) was $15au each but they can now be bought easily enough for $9au each.
Whilst the price has not fallen as far or as fast as many (me included) would like, the price has fallen significantly and, no doubt, will continue to do so, particularly if one or more other brands start to supply dual layer media and compete in our market.
The other problem with this article is the assumption that the Blue Ray and HD-DVD format mess will continue in its present form and be immediately embraced by the public as DL gets left in the dust. I somehow don’t think the transition is going to go as smoothly as assumed.
I think there’ll be a place in the market for DL, even after the next generation formats take hold - DVD9 for those who either can’t afford or don’t want high definition systems, and Blu Ray/HD-DVD for those who do want HD systems.
There are a lot of people who just got through with buying a DVD player… they are going to want to extract maximum value from their investment before thinking about moving on to better things, and cheap DVD9 is probably the best way to do that. Manufacturers of burners seem to have identified this, and we now have a flood of inexpensive DL burners available. Now all we need is for media manufacturers to come to the party too.
I think it’s going to be hard for Blu-Ray/HD-DVD to break into the market and become popular that fast. I expect we’ll have DVD’s around for the next 5-10 years easily and fully expect DL prices to drop. Besides, didn’t I hear that Taiyo Yuden is soon entering the DL market as well to complete with Ritek, Verbatim, and the others?
Another too-fast-shot BC.
You cannot foresee the future.
Lol. I don’t know what world they are living in. In most worlds, you can easily get a good DVD DL burner such as a Pioneer, NEC, Benq/Philips, Samsung/Toshiba and LG for around US$80-US$90. Def under US$100… In their world though, you need to pay at least $150…
Not to mention their article was written in 2005 but they updated it in 2004.
Also, anyone who really thinking BluRay/HD-DVD are going to take hold so fast are just plain stupid and ignoring all past experience. DVD is only just starting to take hold in the optical storage world. There is no f*ing way BluRay/HD-DVD will take hold so fast. For starters, it’s probably going to take at least 3 years, probably more before their writters and media gets down to a decent price.
I think what we really need is for a cheap manufacturer such as Ritek or CMC to start to be able make DVD DL cheaply in large quantities. Once this is occurs, you can expect the price to drop very significantly worldwide. They’re not likely to reach DVD SL prices of course. This is just plain stupid. They are harder to make and why would anyone sell them at the same price when they are approaching double the capacity? Of course they won’t. They will probably eventually become cheaper /gb then DVD SL tho…
I bought a Traxdata DVD+R DL (Ritek D01) about 2 months ago for Â£4.50 here in the UK.
A month ago, Infiniti ones were selling for Â£3.99. Just today, I bought a Ridisc (Ritek D01) one for Â£2.50.
The prices for the disks are certainly coming down…
I can buy a previously viewed Original in great shape for less than the price of DL media here.
As DL media price comes down, I suspect you will see people will star to buy them for HD backups etc rather then now where most people just use them to backup or ‘backup’ movies.
I would use DL media if it was re-writable at these prices for HDD back-ups.
Firstly, is it technically possible to get DL RW?
Secondly, I’d love to get my hands on some
I’m not sure personally. It may be possible but expect it will take a while. Also, expect compatibility to be very poor (regardless of booktype) initially.
I think the greatest market for +RW DL will probably not be backups of data since a lot of people just use write once for this but will probably be the video recording market. It’s not clear how this market is going to do since PVRs have now arrived and are generally better unless you want to give/lend what you recorded to someone else. However the fact that compatibility is likely to be poor makes me wonder how successful this will be. I’m not personally so sure whether we will see +/- RW dl. It’ll probably depend how hard it is to make. I do think +/- R dl is going to be quite successful tho, and as I mentioned not just for ‘backuping’ and backuping DVD videos