Dual-layer media: Any educated guess on how long it'll take prices to really go down?

[Oren]

When can we expect prices of DVD9 to match the current price of DVD5? A year? two years?

[chas0039]

Never. Prices drop as demand goes up and supply increases and start up costs are recovered. So far, demand is near zero. With newer technology to follow, DL may just go away.

[Oren]

There's one problem with the new technology though: It's not compatible with most home players. DL is.

If I want a lossless play-anywhere backup of movie, DL is the only way to go, isn't it?

[ako]

If I want a lossless play-anywhere backup of movie, DL is the only way to go, isn't it?

burn it to 2 discs using something like dvdfab.

[Oren]

2 discs is not good enough for my needs. I want to see the whole film without interruptions.

[terminalvelocd]

G'day all,

I would have to agree with chas0039. With the prices of DL media being as high as they are, production costs being as high as they are, and the associated difficulties and variables with manufacturing dual-layered discs, I can't see DL media dropping to the same prices as SL media or even twice the price.

Regards,
TerminalVeloCD

[zevia]

Never. Prices drop as demand goes up and supply increases and start up costs are recovered. So far, demand is near zero.

I believe it will. Demand is low because price is high. In economic theory, its possible that a price cut (lowering the price) can increase revenue. Another thing is, currently there are only a handfull DL mfg/brands. If there are more DL brands in the market like the SL, then the market will be a pure competition, demand will be elastic and price will be adjusted. [my rusty econ101]

[Hawseman]

I agree more with Oren.....

Blu-ray (or HD) is just not going to appear....Christ, they haven't perfected -/+R yet ----read a few posts here. DL is currently in "public" beta mode. We'll see manufacturers reverse-engineer Verbatim dies and processes and introduce their own DL media - already starting to happen. The manufacturers will need some profit-based media when 'R' media is down to the pennies (it's going there fast). It's intricate....DL burners will need to become more mainstream, which should drive demand up.

They're holding out for the right time....It's common repetition of history (1.44mb floppies to today's 16x DVD media).

[chas0039]

My guess is that they would be cutting prices if they could. They aren't. Also, if there is profit being made, capital would flock to the market and competition would increase. It is not.

You are right in theory, but the market is always driven by demand. Lowering the price does not increase demand, it just allows people who want to buy, but at a lower price, to participate. I am guessing the curve is such that it would require a steep drop in price to catch those people. Of course, I am just making a guess. I could well be wrong. I would never have expected to see such an increase in DVD-RAM drives this year. But I suppose, given that 16X is the absolute limit in write speed, the manufacturers are desperate to find added features to sell new models.

[Oren]

Lowering the price does not increase demand, it just allows people who want to buy, but at a lower price, to participate.

There can be several reasons for low demand, one of the is out-of-this-world price. With a down-to-earth one, demand will come.

[chas0039]

That's not how I define "demand". Just because someone doesn't buy doesn't mean they don't want. A large part of any demand curve represents unfulfilled purchases.

[Oren]

Bottom line: Lower the price and people will buy it. Keep it at this level and you'll never cover the initial investment. It's up to the manufacturers to decide which way they'll go. I sure know what I, as a consumer, intend to do.

[Xecuter2]

Verbatim introduced their DL disks about a year ago (+/- a month or two), but they are just now starting to package them in bulk (10/pack). At this rate we'll never see a 50 or 100 pack of DL disks.

[PhotoJim]

Verbatim introduced their DL disks about a year ago (+/- a month or two), but they are just now starting to package them in bulk (10/pack). At this rate we'll never see a 50 or 100 pack of DL disks.

Future Shop in Canada had 25-disc spindles of DVD+R DL media last week. $100 Canadian (~$80 US). It's only a matter of time before the price drops enough for 50-disc spindles to be viable. Before this month I'd never seen DL media below $6.67 a disc (Canadian). I bought five discs a week ago at $5.95 and now they're down to $4 in quantity so I think it's already happening.

[Hawseman]

Chas, I agree with you 99% of the time....this is the 1%.

I'd be willing to wage that the average household computer does not have a DL burner. Also, the average joe is still (or just) learning how to burn +/-R's. How many people have you overheard or helped in Staples or Office Depot recently? Even most of the employees don't have a clue.

Now I agree, probably prices could have dropped more by now....but why bother, it could put a sting on a lucrative -R/+R market.

[Mister-T]

Maybe because yield on dvd+r dl is poor

[Hawseman]

Maybe because yield on dvd+r dl is poor

That's quite possible too..

[Markstar]

Future Shop in Canada had 25-disc spindles of DVD+R DL media last week. $100 Canadian (~$80 US). It's only a matter of time before the price drops enough for 50-disc spindles to be viable. Before this month I'd never seen DL media below $6.67 a disc (Canadian). I bought five discs a week ago at $5.95 and now they're down to $4 in quantity so I think it's already happening.

$100 for 25 discs??? :eek:

That is already a pretty competitive price imho, around 4x the price for a (Verbatim) 4.7GB disc = ~2x $/GB which is not too bad if I'm not mistaken. At least much better than all I have seen so far. :a

[chas0039]

Chas, I agree with you 99% of the time....this is the 1%.

I'd be willing to wage that the average household computer does not have a DL burner. .

Then I haven't been clear because that is exactly what I have been saying...there is low demand for the media. When demand goes up more will sell. When more sells more profit will be made. When there is more profit, more suppliers will come into the market and the price will drop.

What you say mirrors my initial assertion. If people don't even understand what it is or, in many cases are not even able to use it, demand will be low. That is part of the reason price is still high.

I am not saying that there is a huge untapped market out there that is just waiting for the prices to drop. What I said was that the portion of the market that is waiting for the price to drop wants a huge drop before they will buy.

So now I am 99.9%, right?

[t.p.k]

2 discs is not good enough for my needs. I want to see the whole film without interruptions.

No offense Oren, but I always get a kick out of people that say this. They're not willing to pony up the cash for DL but insist that a 20 second pause to get up and change discs is 'not good enough'. Me, well, I certainly don't mind getting up and changing the disc. I guess if it bothers you enough you could just go get a multi-disc dvd carousel or changer - but then you'd be back to spending money. I'll just keep burning backups for $.27/disc (that's $.54 a movie) while you complain about $4 and $5 semi-compatible dl blanks.

As for Blu-Ray, I believe Matsushita (sp?) has already demonstrated recordable bluray drives and discs, using Nero software no less. It's been available in Japan for over a year now, so we're about due. Price is the big question, but from what I've heard the price slope will be steeper than past recordable technologies. In this regard it might be better for a 'format war' to take place - that way we can get our pure BluRay tech as the competing companies slash and burn to gain market share.

And as always, I have to agree with chas - most people couldnt care less, and those that do are waiting for $.50 dl recordables and, I would say, standalone compatibility. (I haven't heard too much in this regard, as I haven't researched it - I'm sticking with my SL 'Value' TY's :iagree: )