Using a USB flash drive last night I got to thinking that blu-ray will not be around long that ush flash drives will get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper the way blank dvds did. Then movies will be placed on USB flash drives and we will all have a small box with all our movies on Flash drives. The dvd flash players will one be as big as they have to be for the connections since the electronic will be all small.
Some time ago I caught a show that introduced the optical cube. Not only did it read from all sides, it read from interior coordinates which gave a 1/8 inch cube
lots of storage space.
So it is going to happen think I will wait do not want Sony getting my money for a Blu-ray player. One of these days they are going to put all that man knows on a one Inch chip. Most women would say it would not take that big a chip when it comes to what men know anyway.
Don’t we have a dedicated high definition forum or blu-ray sub-forum for this kind of chat?
Somehow, “cube freaks” doesn’t have the same ring to it.
In any case, all media will be disposable, and will come in different quality & material types.
Software will still have bugs, burners will come in various models, speeds & capabilities, and it will all still have to be discussed.
I haven’t burned a CD, that I can remember, for about 2 years … and that was just because it was a file small enough and CDR spindle was the closest in reach.
That said, in 10 years, before mass deployment of Optical Cube media, everyone, well the survivors. will be huddled in caves, shivering off the nuclear winter
Hard drives might just give them a run for their money too. You can get small portable hard drives for about the same price per gig as blank blue ray disks, and you can get normal internal hard drives for about 1/4 the cost per gig. You can get a terrabyte or two of hard drive space for the cost of a blue ray burner. Beyond that, microsoft and others are already backing the use of hard drive over optical disk for HD content.
Flash drives and or flash cards might have the potential to fill the portable part of that but they are going to have to come down in price some more (considering how fast they have been dropping in price, its possible).
There are dvd players that play from flash drives, so why not HD players? I guess you would just need someone willing to invest the money to develop the format. It might be a good option for those without an htpc.
The 12cm disc has become a standard for over twenty years now.
Wether you call it cd, dvd, hd-dvd or blu-ray is not really the care of the average consumer. The storage system of these discs (despite the stupid packages marketeers keep inventing) can be the same.
I doubt Blu-Ray will go away easily. I think the 12cm disc will only dissapear if something really really really awesome would take it’s place. I doubt flash drives or wireless usb will succeed in doing just that.
I would suspect that 12cm disks won’t go away either. Dvd has a very strong presence. Due to its very low cost, I suspect that it will be around for quite a while (just like cd is now even though dvd’s are so cheap with much more storage). Unless blueray drops their prices significantly though, htpc’s are a currently available and cheaper alternative in the long run (well have to see what happens with availability of movie downloads but for data, recorded HD tv etc, the advantage is already there). It might not be what many mainstream people adopt, but htpc’s are getting quite common so its going to take a share of the market. As far as the main stream, I can see many people just sticking with dvd till blueray drops in price quite a bit. If flash memory keeps falling so fast in price, while again, it might not appeal to all of the mainstream, it might be a viable alternative for portability for many.
Loosing that big of a chunk of the market could make it quite hard for them to drop prices (as high enough levels of mass production are not there), and something better could come along before the mainstream ever fully adopts blueray. Of course I’m just guessing, and the complete opposite could happen (its kind of hard to predict the future). I suspect that blueray won’t die soon, but will the mainstream ever fully adopt it?
The fact is that flash chips are advancing very rapidly and taking much of the marketshare otherwise belonging to optical disks. Both DVD and Blu-ray will grow at least for a few years longer. Just not as fast as flash. Some of us will be able to have a 32GB flash memory for under US$100 by the end of 2008. More PC users around me are booting from flash either on CF or USB. HDD will continue to grow, too, much faster than Blu-ray, but not as fast as flash.
I have to agree with Kenny.
I suspect Blu-ray will be the last big optical media, before everyone switches to Flash based solutions.
You can already easily get 8 gig flash drives for 30$ online (I can get them locally at micro center for the same price) without even having to wait for a sale price in the US. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if by the end of the year we see 16 gig ones in the 40$ price range or maybe even 32 gig in the 80$ price range the way prices have been continuing to drop. I have gotten to where if I need to just give a few files to someone I just loan them a flash drive (6$ for a 1 gig isn’t a lot to risk if it gets lost). Some schools are requiring them too (we get lots of people at work looking for them when we get them claiming the school required one). I would think that would help force use of them into the mainstream a bit. It will be interesting to see if blue ray prices drop enough to try and stay competitive with hard drives and flash memory?
I bought an 8gig Sandisc flash drive on Black Friday for 39.99 at Staples and I have not seen any real deals on 16gig flash drives yet. But as you say I am sure they are coming, I am sure blu-ray prices will drop quickly if they want the masses to use it. I think in less than a year we will see a big drop in the prices of drives and media for blu-ray.