Blu-ray's pending death in next few years

I just posted the article Blu-ray’s pending death in next few years.

After the director of electronics for Samsung said Blu-ray would be gone by 2013, it seems like a couple of different bloggers and journalists have also agreed Blu-ray will lose its relevance over…

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[li]Blu-Ray dies on the floor, pricing, buy a DVD for 3 to 10 dollars used, and older for $1.00 and up for 6 month old movie, why buy blow-Ray [/li][/ul]

Indeed, I find it interesting there are so many people stepping forward to try and say Blu-ray will be dead in 2012 or 2013. I think DVD will remain the dominant player, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it lose another 10 or 15 percent to Blu-ray.

First, even if Blu-ray only makes it to 2013, that’s a pretty long time when you consider Blu-ray has already been around for two years, so that would give it seven years of life at a most sonservative estimate. DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years. But the five-year prediction is not validated by the numbers which show Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year, from 4.5 times as many Blu-ray discs being sold in the U.S. every month this year compared to 2007, to PlayStation 3 sales of two million units representing a 92% increase over 2007.
Second, if standard-def digital downloads represent only a tiny dent in the home disc market, not even keeping up with the Blu-ray segment of that market, then high-def downloads will only be a fraction of that already tiny market.

" DVD was considered wildly successful when it peaked after just 10 years and has been flat or declining the last several years."

That is because almost every household now owns a DVD player now. The market is now saturated. The boom from VHS to DVD is now over; however, movie sells are still good when there are any good movie releases to be had.

“Blu-ray sales increasing enormously on all fronts this year”

According to this article that is not true. PS3 game console sales are the only reason why Bluray is hanging around. The sales from other standalone units have been lackluster at best. Plus, the market share has actually fallen to around 9% of disc sales compared to DVD disc sales. In the first few years of the advent of DVD, DVD saw huge sale increases by year 3. Those figures don’t include game console sales like the PS2 or any PC DVD ROM sales unlike what they have done with the PS3 and Bluray!

I am going to make a prediction. Once we see PS3 sales taper off, you will see the same for Bluray standalone player sales.

“it’ll be interesting to see if they are also willing to spend cash on the lower cost of Blu-ray.”

What do you mean the lower cost of Blu-ray?

Its High Definition people ! DVD is not HD, please stop saying DVD is good enough. It is not HD and will never be !
Why will there not be a HD video format ? HDTV is taking off and BR is the best way to own and rent HD movies.
If you think downloads will have less DRM then Blu ray, dream on ! Downloads, via cable or internet are not near the quality of BR.
Consumers like to buy movies to own and collect and be able to lend and play in any player.
DVD had an enoormous boost from PS2 at the time because it put millions of DVD players in peoples homes and forced standalone players to drop in price. For a while, most DVD players in the world were PS2’s until DVD players dropped to 200 - 300 and then it really started to take off.
BR will get only get cheaper as standalone players also drop.
HDTVs are plummeting in price too and soon you won’t be able to buy a TV that can’t display HD.
BTW, that Samsung article was BS. Samsung did not say that, they were talking about LCD and the article was wrong.


DVD didn’t have a boost from PS2. If you click the link I gave, you will see that DVD grew by leaps and bounds and without even PS2 sales figures to boot.

VHS to DVD had more going for it than DVD to Bluray. To me, the picture quality is of little improvement from DVD and doesn’t dictate me buying a new player, TV, receiver, and replacing my current movie library for their Bluray counterpart. Maybe, I mean maybe, in the future I might take the plunge but for right now I am content with my DVD player and home theater setup. Besides, watching a movie is one element to the experience. Feeling the movie with my 12" driver SVS subwoofer capable of 20Hz and below, is also another element I love. It adds depth to a two dimensional film.

Not to play devil’s advocate… even Gay-Ray is not high def… it is still a compressed stream EVEN your local theater is not high def … High def is 8 k x 8 k that is truely high def… Unless you are holding the massive server editing farm for TRUE high def… then you are holding a compressed format in your hand.

Reason why DVD is still king… $19 cheap dvd players wich you can toss every month if you wish!!! Plain and simple.

Here is a brain teaser for ya if anyone can answer this one…

The PS3 has 8 cores … can it actually upconvert dvd’s on 8 cores? let’s say to as close as Gay-Ray?? indeed it can but Sony never wanted to do that… hance why they put a drive in there instead of upscaling!!! This means licencing schemes and royalties…

I don’t want Gay-Ray that is sony’s crap forced into YOU!!! tell them to shove their Gay-Ray up their GAY-HOLE!!!

shaolin, I was around and remember it well. When PS2 released it put millions of DVD players in peoples homes over the course of its 1st year and there were far more PS2 DVD players then standalone. By end of 2001 there were over 20 million PS2’s sold worldwide. Being a cosole and a DVD player, it forced standalone prices to drop and THAT was the cause for the format to really take off. And you can see that in your link, in 2001 and 2002 the standalone players started to really take off, it was due to lower prices.
PS2 was a catalyst, this has been an accepted fact by the industry for a long time. Having an extra 20 million players in peoples homes on top of the milltions of standalone players really helped the format.
I hear you about the sound, I love my surround sound too. But certain movies are SOO much nicer to watch in HD for the improved picture. Anything visual / special effects oriented is so nice !
No one is saying to re-buy your collection.
BTW, DVD required one to buy a new TV to get progressive scan and component video and really take advantage of DVD’s picture.

Coolio, I don’t know what you’re talking about, 1920x1080 is high def. and far more detailed than DVD. Of course its compressed but no where near compression of cable. You do not see the compression, like with well-encoded DVDs.
8k is a still a dream (its a loooong way off ), and it will be compressed too.
NO ONE can use umcompressed video formats. Its impossible to get real time playback with uncompressed HD video. It is for archival.

Never forget to follow the money. Hollywood is missing out on millions of dollars each time a new movie is released. Anyone can go rent a movie and clone it. The software to do it is so easy to get. And it is possible to copy Blu-ray titles too.

Because of all this pirating the Software makers have asked the Hardware makers for some help. All large screen displays have HDMI ports ( some have 2 or 3). All Blu-Ray players have HDMI output ports. Most audio Recievers will also have HDMI ports. So we will have in place a full digital path from source to display for Audio and Video. Great for the consumer, Right? I think it is.
It is even greater for Sony Pictures and evey other company producing Blu-Ray titles. Besides sending great Video 1080P signals and 7.1 Audio signals, HDMI circuits look for something called HDCP. If they see a HDCP code then everything is great. And life is wonderful.

If they don’t see the copy protection code then they simply turn off. No image on your screen and no sound from your speakers.
When you teenage kids goes out and rented a blu-ray view on your 42" display then things work great. But when they drop it on you your computer to copy for their friends the HDCP code does not get copied. And when you drop the cloned disk in your blu-ray player thing get turned off.

I think over all this is a very good thing because the ones that pay for titles don’t pay a surcharge for those thet think movies should be free to copy. If you were going to release a blockbuser movie like the new BATMAN and you knew if you released in on DVD 15% or more would be copied and if you released it on Blu-ray almost none would get copied. What would you do?

My only question is how HDCP works with downloaded movies. Maybe the code will allow ONE copy to be made then gets turned off. From what I know Code is not neeeded to play a movie on your computer screen

Look at what Disney is offering on their Blu-rays releases. They offer a lot more features. And Guess why? It not because they want to impress you but it a lot harder to copy Sleeping Beauty from a Blu-ray than from a DVD.

Like I said. Follow the money. Do you think they could sell more CD"S if it wasn’t so easy to copy one on ANY computer

It’s the same old story - Blu-ray is irrelevant for the majority and will stay that way. Joe sixpack might eventually get a HDTV but sure as hell won’t be splurging on superflous Blu-ray titles.

“…high-definition movie downloads, which are just around the corner…” Whose “corner” do you have in mind? A number of ISPs in the United States have recently announced and then put into effect download caps. If you were talking about 250 GB per month, there would be some concern. If you were talking about 40 GB per month–and outrageous fees for going over that trivial amount !!!–then any hope of downloading high-definition movies would be pointless.

I disagree that downloads are giving competition to BluRay. It has taken almost 10 years for DSL or cable internet access to get into homes of america. I still know people who are just barely getting into DSL. In my experience, downloading a movie via iTunes on a DSL line can take about 4 to 5 hours. Any we aren’t talking HD at all. Bluray discs can hold up to 50GB of data. Try downloading even 30GB of movie data over DSL or even fiber optic. Forget it! Bluray is here to stay and it’s getting better. The main reason why sales are slow is because of the economy.

I’d love to ue Blueray, but the cost is not justifiable. A burner for the PC costs around $200, which is high, though acceptable. But the media is still over $10 for one blank 25gb disc–$10 buys you 50 of the highest quality blank DVD’s! I’m waiting for blueray media to come down to $1/disc, which was the magic price that caused me to buy my first DVD burner.