Blu-ray will be dead in a year.
1)The company that brought us rootkits - people have not forgotten about this. That's why most techies wont buy blu-ray, they remember the rootkit.
2)DRM. DRM and more DRM. Blu-ray is so locked up in DRM that just on principle, most people under 30 years old wont touch it with a ten foot pole. The future is free and open-source, DRM is a dinosaur.
3) Physical media - nobody needs it. Broadband is ubiquitous and it's going to all be about downloads in the future. No reason to keep or spin a shiny disc. Only old folks (well, again, those over 30) feel a need to keep a 'library' of 'discs' in their house. The techies and younger generation are wired, and have no need for it.
4)No difference from upsampling. Maybe when magnified and on a 100 inch TV the difference can be detected but everyone I talk to says they can't see the difference at all between Blu Ray and upsampled DVD. Blu-Ray is a scam basically to re-sell you all the same movies when you can already have them looking just as good.
5)$30 for a movie? Sorry, old men, the new model is free. If people think they can keep charging for "IP", they're wrong. "IP" is dead; information can't be constrained. There's always a Hacker. So every time you try to charge for IP, someone will be there to break it free. Want to make money? That's not our problem, you guys have to figure it out, because charging money for software, movies and music is dead. In the future, those who want to create for the love of creating will still create great software, movies and music and they will be shared with everyone.