Blu-ray up, DVD down in 2008

I just posted the article Blu-ray up, DVD down in 2008.

While optical media struggled as a whole, the Blu-ray disc format enjoyed a healthy 2008.Spending on Blu-ray sales and rentals nearly tripled over the last year, growing from $270 million in 2007 to…

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HDTV, PVRs, PPV and VOD is not helping optical disc sales either…

Duh. Thanks for pointing out those (glaring) omissions. - Jared

Good to see the BluRay format growing… everything old has to make way for the new. But it’ll have a tough time ahead competing with these services… Hopefully it will win, we all love quality. :slight_smile:

DVDs were the best affordable image quality available during its growth, but now other technologies are providing similar quality or slightly better, hence the drop in sales.

The next natural step is Blu-Ray which is again the best affordable image quality available, but for how long?

No problem! Someone had to do it. Nice chart though!

Interesting thing I just noticed looking at the chart again – in 1999 the DVD had sale/rental numbers almost equal to Blu-Ray’s current figures, and VHS was still the juggernaut.

If you believe history repeats itself, then we’ve got about nine years before the next format comes along. SD, anyone?

Yah DVD was expensive and slow to start as well. All the people that dump on bluray because its expensive, probably weren’t the early adopters on dvd either. The only thing about replacing bluray though, is that bluray is HD quality. So now were getting to the point where were limited by the size of tv one can fit in their house. They’re might not be a pressing reason to replace bluray unless people have 100 inch plus tv’s in their houses?

I was an early adopter of DVD back in the late 1990’s. I paid around $400 for my first DVD player. Back then, the picture quality difference between DVD and VHS made the choice easy. Today, I hesitate to spend the money on a Blu-ray player because I do not see a difference that is worth the price between DVD and Blu-ray on my 2004-vintage, 42-inch, 768P LCD-projection HDTV. I also hesitate to buy a bigger, 1080P HDTV because I am not sure the juice is worth the squeeze.

Good point, now let’s see if Blu-ray can rake in $2.5 billion this year, or come close. That will be a good measure of the format’s success (or failure).

Maybe to be on the safe side, you should check out the new Panasonic DMP-BD70V VCR-Blu-ray combo unit. :wink:

You should cleary see the difference in image quality between native 1080p from Blu-Ray and upscaling from standard DVD.

For your screen size, assuming you have a well qualibrated Full HD TV, you should be sitting at maximum 10ft from the screen to notice some of the benefits of 1080p. The closer you get ot the TV, the bigger the difference will be with 720p or standard definition.

I’ve still got a VCR that I can hook up to my PC and “rip” VHS tapes with using an ADSTech device! I did this recently with the movie “High Strung” (with Steve Oedekerk & Jim Carey) as it is not available on DVD in North America. Very funny film IMO.

DVD sales will slow primarily because people have replaced their VHS collections with DVD - and are now looking to a variety of ways of obtaining their content. I have this past Xmas, at a friend’s house witnessed a few blu-ray movies on a 50 inch Panasonic Plasma TV, in full 1080p… you can notice the difference with hi-def, sure… but is it worth all the extra money… I’d still have to say NO. The movies that show off the hi-def best are going to be sci-fi… would never buy comedy movies in hi-def, as 1080p jokes don’t make me laugh any harder :wink: And telling people that blu-ray sales are up is like saying more mp3 players sold this year than last. The transition from DVD to hi-def is going to be a very long process.

Looking at the chart, by 2001, DVD already had over %50 market share. 1999, it had similar sales to that of Bluray but in just a matter of 3 years time it already grabbed a huge part of the market away from VHS. Bluray, being out for over 2 years now, hasn’t even come close to what DVD accomplished. I think you people that have this “pipe” dream of Bluray eventually dominating must be smoking something. Even if Bluray sales are 2.6 billion in 2009, it still will be a drop in the bucket to DVD. DVD sales have declined probably because the discs are cheaper to rent now. The figures are also based on rentals. When you add in Redbox, Netflix, and other online rental options that are offered, the numbers are going to be skewed because the movies are cheaper to rent than they were in the past. 1$ movies, you can’t beat that and I will take the SD over HD any day for a $1.

Shaolin: DVD players were first introduced in 1997, not 1999. So in '99 dvd had similar to blurays now which have also been around for about 2 years. So if you want to see where bluray sales are you’d have to give it another 3 years.
To they guy who says the quality difference isn’t worth the price and thats why bluray won’t catch on. Why do so many people believe the prices will remain static. We’ve seen quite the drop in bluray prices over the last year and will continue. DVD’s were horribly expensive 10 years ago, now look how cheap they are. As bluray continues to drop in price, it will become more competive with dvd. Blurays aren’t always going to heavily out price dvd. I think bluray works great for comedy and sci-fi. Once you see how sharp the picture is, its hard to go back. Give it a few more years when bluray prices are more inline with dvd, and almost everyone has an hdtv, I can really see bluray taking off.

Unfortunately, it is very difficult to go into a video store and ask for them to hook up a 4-year-old, 768P HDTV to a Blu-ray player to see if I can detect a picture quality difference.
I used to have a HTPC with a Blu-ray ROM on which I played a few Blu-ray movies, and I have to say that I failed to see a picture-quality difference that was worth the extra cost. Not to mention the black bars at the top and bottom and that wasted about a fourth of my screen’s real estate.
When I rent HD movies (720P or 1080i) from my cable company, they look better because they occupy my entire screen, even though I can only use 720P.


“DVD players were first introduced in 1997, not 1999. So in '99 dvd had similar to blurays now which have also been around for about 2 years. So if you want to see where bluray sales are you’d have to give it another 3 years.”

By 1999, DVD had been out for 2 years. By the end of 2008, Bluray has been out for 2 years, relevent. They are nearly at the same figures for being out for 2 years. So the question is, is Bluray going to grab anything near what DVD did? I don’t think so. Another thing to take into account, are sales. By year 2, DVD had %6 total sales. Bluray, by year 2, has only %3.3 of the total sales so the numbers may be similiar but they are not the same. We would probably have to go back to 1998 for DVD to have similiar total sales or even 1997.

Like I have said before, if Bluray wants to take off, they should concentrate on the PC market more. Storage is becoming a big issue and DVDR’s are just not cutting it now. I have over 90 DVDR’s of music, some even DL, and I am waiting for something as cheap as DVDR’s to hit the market. The Bluray Discs are still too pricey along with a burner to be a viable storage solution. Bluray could hit the PC market and force the phase out of DVD from there. It would be easier to do it from the PC side than settop boxes. Once DVD is booted from the PC side, nothing would be able to stop it from dominating the entertainment market.

Blu-ray will be dead in a year.

1)The company that brought us rootkits - people have not forgotten about this. That’s why most techies wont buy blu-ray, they remember the rootkit.

2)DRM. DRM and more DRM. Blu-ray is so locked up in DRM that just on principle, most people under 30 years old wont touch it with a ten foot pole. The future is free and open-source, DRM is a dinosaur.

  1. Physical media - nobody needs it. Broadband is ubiquitous and it’s going to all be about downloads in the future. No reason to keep or spin a shiny disc. Only old folks (well, again, those over 30) feel a need to keep a ‘library’ of ‘discs’ in their house. The techies and younger generation are wired, and have no need for it.

4)No difference from upsampling. Maybe when magnified and on a 100 inch TV the difference can be detected but everyone I talk to says they can’t see the difference at all between Blu Ray and upsampled DVD. Blu-Ray is a scam basically to re-sell you all the same movies when you can already have them looking just as good.

5)$30 for a movie? Sorry, old men, the new model is free. If people think they can keep charging for “IP”, they’re wrong. “IP” is dead; information can’t be constrained. There’s always a Hacker. So every time you try to charge for IP, someone will be there to break it free. Want to make money? That’s not our problem, you guys have to figure it out, because charging money for software, movies and music is dead. In the future, those who want to create for the love of creating will still create great software, movies and music and they will be shared with everyone.

@ bobthom (guest): “Blu-Ray is a scam basically to re-sell you all the same movies when you can already have them looking just as good.”

Amen to that! The blu-ray folks are just trying the same shite that the music industry has pulled time and again. To sell you the same product again…and again and again - only in a different form. From vinyl, to 8-track to cassette to CD to SACD etc. Each time people go kicking and screaming because they don’t want to change. They don’t want to buy everything again.

Sadly, Blu-ray will not die in one year. Not with Sony willing to run the company into the ground with yet one more failed proprietary format. They are project over a 1 BILLION dollar loss this year and simultaneously are hinting at a price cut on the POS3.

Remember the PSP and the UMD? What a flop!

Well Blu-ray is UMD re-loaded and they will take this format as far as they can even if it means Sony is destroyed in the process…