[QUOTE=Mr Grits;2148511]BluRay is a niche market … destined to stay that way … Consumers won’t buy a player if the software is too expensive …
PS/3 is the driving force behind BluRay adoption but the average consumer won’t see the benefit without major upgrades in the playback chain. HD-DVD failed and so will BluRay.[/QUOTE]
A little cynical?
Bluray is already successful and IS the successor to DVD.
Yes, the PS3 was the trojan for Bluray & it killed HD-DVD, kudo’s to Sony for the forethought, eh? No comment to M$ & Toshiba
Yes, the entire playback chain must be replaced, but TV’s break down, and I know for certain that analogue TV is being replaced by digital, and being dismantled, in most western countries, and I guess others regions also. This means that most people will need digital set top boxes. Immediately, people are annoyed by multiple remotes just to watch TV - I know my parents are
A TV with digital tuner eliminates the annoyance of multiple remotes, and the new HD TV’s are not that much more expensive compared to the crappy SD equivalents of the same size … so SD TV’s will be discontinued and the existing TV’s will be replaced with HDTV’s of similar sizes.
Bluray came out approx 2 years ago, while financial stress was beginning, and only the hardcore, or incredibly rich are foolish enough to adopt new technologies. However, after people see HD TV in action, DVD’s are a step down … and they’ll be convinced to upgrade to bluray.
In a few years, enough people will be purchasing bluray content to drop “software”/movie prices anyway & then bluray will be comparable to DVD’s.
At the moment, (in .AU) New release DVD’s are $30 - The same New Release Bluray is $45, which is a premium of 50%. People seem to be comparing the overall price of DVD’s to Bluray … and the DVD market is over-saturated in catalogue titles,that only the most avid movie collector could possibly find attractive, that are 3 for $15 and are being compared to overall Bluray prices (which of course are high in comparison).
In the first instance … all bluray players play DVD’s and many older movies weren’t filmed with HD resolution cameras, so won’t really benefit from the higher resolution regardless … although I’m sure the film industry is pulling out the old film reels & resampling them, but it’s doubtful people will be replacing them … despite the movie industries enthusiasm.
The only possible killer is Video on Demand, or Internet TV, and when I look around … the backbones of most countries in the world simply can’t take it. It will be years before the backbones are upgraded to handle an influx of millions of people watching High Definition Video at 30Mb/s bandwidth across a country.
I’ll remind most people that Bluray Video Bitrates can peak at 40Mb/s, and ADSL is MAXIMUM dedicated 24Mb/s in optimal conditions, and Cable is shared 30Mb/s. If you want to have something to listen to, it can reach 48Mb/s … just twice the maximum (optimal) speed of ADSL2+ & 60% more than the maximum possible speed of cable.
And if two people watch IPTV in real time on the same Cable … good luck.
And as I recall, the predominant internet service connection in the USA is cable
Is anyone going to protest at the shared maximum possible bandwidth available with current Wifi ISP’s?
Wifi is great for fast, short bursts of internet traffic (like websites). But streaming large files can make your hair fall out, and your teeth wear down.
Bluray has no serious contenders in the short term. The format is already well established.