Tremendous article, I'd say the defining point will be the price of media. But, by the time its defined, there will be something better at the current pricepoint, there always is. As for it going the way of Beta/VHS/etc... that won't happen because its in the wild and can be licensed. BETA was superior to VHS, but SONY wouldn't let it be licensed [they almost died with MemoryStick because of that attitude]. I'm going to wait and wait, save my videos and multimedia as files on my HD, if I have a presentation to do, at least one HD is firewire and I'll just drag the damn thing to the shop.